Why Mnangagwa’s 2030 agenda is a national security threat

By Mark Musarurwa

The last 24 years are replete with cases in which the Zimbabwean military has played a hand in determining the country’s political trajectory.

In fact, the military’s direct interest in the country’s political affairs stretches far beyond the turn of the century. But my focus in this article pertains to the post-2000 era, the period of the formation and existence of a formidable opposition, MDC, later to become CCC, a party that has posed the biggest threat to Zanu PF’s decades of rule.

Indeed, during this period, what had been a subtle involvement by the country’s security forces became more pronounced and unambiguous this time.

And for that, it is not a remote thought to suggest that current manoeuvres by President Emmerson Mnangagwa to extend his term of office beyond the two-term limit prescribed in the national constitution is yet another case in which the military has vested interest.

For starters, Mnangagwa became President not so much because of any democratic process in the country but because he led a Zanu PF faction that enjoyed the backing of the military at the time Robert Mugabe was President. The 2017 coup was engineered by the now Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.

What is there now is a fall-out among elements of the same faction that remains embedded in partisan politics in the country.

Chiwenga, the immediate former commander of the armed forces, still has remnants of loyalty within the army. Mnangagwa, who also has had close links with the military from his time as Defence Minister and now Commander-in-Chief of the country’s armed forces, enjoys a great measure of support within the security forces.

WHY I THINK THE MILITARY IS EMBEDDED IN PARTISAN POLITICS

In 2008, when then MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai posed the first real threat to Mugabe’s rule, the military pulled rank and declared it will never salute any politician who emerged from the country’s electoral process without a liberation war background.

The statement by the security forces was interpreted to mean they were not going to allow Tsvangirai to rule even if he were to emerge winner of the poll.

Indeed, when Tsvangirai won the first round of the 2008 elections, the military left the barracks and took part into marshalling citizens to vote for Mugabe in what turned out to be a bloody Presidential run-off campaign in support of Mugabe.

The opposition has also repeatedly claimed the military has been actively involved in the country’s poll processes; to put it bluntly, they have been interfering with the vote to rig on Zanu PF’s behalf.

When Mugabe fell out with his military backers months before the 2017 coup, he openly accused it of plotting a coup. He was right on hindsight.

The military’s unhealthy interest in civilian politics was also witnessed in the shooting of dozens of civilians during the tense period that followed the 2018 election. Seven innocent civilians died at the time with several more maimed. The military went beyond its constitutional mandate to usurp the duties of the police the arm of the state mandated to curb civil unrest. .

These are few scenarios that signal a situation where the direction of political processes has to be rubberstamped by the men in combat gear.

Fast forward to 2025, we now see war veterans, who by virtue of them having been designated as a reserve force of the Zimbabwe National Army are an appendage of the military, have declared their interests on who becomes President after 2028.

While it was easier before to silence political parties and factions that had no military backing, and while Geza does not speak for the military, the current factional wars in Zanu PF are pitting sides that have military backing and it would not be remote to suggest that the statements uttered by Geza reflect the overarching sentiment thin the military.

Author Mark Musarurwa is a Zimbabwean based in Canada. He writes in his own capacity.